摘要：Abstract
Background
The primary reason to study summer monsoon (long rain season) all over Ethiopia was due to the atmospheric circulation displays a spectacular annual cycle of rainfall in which more than 80 % of the annual rain comes during the summer season comprised of the months June–September. Any minor change in rainfall intensity from the normal conditions imposes a severe challenge on the rural people since its main livelihood is agriculture which mostly relies on summer monsoon. This research work, entitled, ‘The outlook of Ethiopian long rain season from the global circulation model’ has been conducted to fill such knowledge gaps of the target population. The objectives of the research were to examine the global circulation model output data and its outlooks over Ethiopian summer. To attain this specific objective, global circulation model output data were used. These data were analyzed by using Xcon, Matlab and grid analysis and display system computer software programs.
Results
The results revealed that Ethiopian summer rainfall (long rain season) has been declined by 70.51 mm in the past four decades (1971–2010); while the best performed models having similar trends to the historical observed rainfall data analysis predicted that the future summer mean rainfall amount will decline by about 60.07 mm (model cccma) and 89.45 mm (model bccr).
Conclusions
To conclude, the legislative bodies and development planners should design strategies and plans by taking into account impacts of declining summer rainfall on rural livelihoods.
关键词：KeywordsEnGlobal circulation modelClimate changeRainfallEthiopian summerLong rain season
