期刊名称：International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
印刷版ISSN：2095-0055
电子版ISSN：2192-6395
出版年度：2014
卷号：5
期号：2
页码：136-146
DOI：10.1007/s13753-014-0016-3
语种：English
出版社：Springer
摘要：Abstract
The potential impacts of climate change on the Great Hungarian Plain based on two regional climate models, REMO and ALADIN, were analyzed using indicators for environmental hazards. As the climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) will change in the two investigated periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), their influences on drought, wind erosion, and inland excess water hazards are modeled by simple predictive models. Drought hazards on arable lands will increasingly affect the productivity of agriculture compared to the reference period (1961–1990). The models predict an increase between 12.3 % (REMO) and 20 % (ALADIN) in the first period, and between 35.6 % (REMO) and 45.2 % (ALADIN) in the second period. The increase of wind erosion hazards is not as obvious (+15 % for the first period in the REMO model). Inland excess water hazards are expected to be slightly reduced (−4 to 0 %) by both model predictions in the two periods without showing a clear tendency on reduction. All three indicators together give a first regional picture of potential hazards of climate change. The predictive model and data combinations of the regional climate change models and the hazard assessment models provide insights into regional and subregional impacts of climate change and will be useful in planning and land management activities.
