期刊名称：International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
印刷版ISSN：2095-0055
电子版ISSN：2192-6395
出版年度：2014
卷号：5
期号：4
页码：296-312
DOI：10.1007/s13753-014-0033-2
语种：English
出版社：Springer
摘要：Abstract
To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this article focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of population and five scenario earthquakes that form the basis for loss estimation in the city of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Four temporal contexts (weekday, weekly holiday, the 30 days of Ramadan, and strike days) expand the more typical daytime and nighttime settings in which to examine hazard risk. The population distribution for every 2 hour interval in a day is developed for each type of day. A relationship between the occupancy classes and average space (persons per 100 m2) is used to distribute people in each building regardless of building locations. A total daytime and nighttime population is obtained for each building and the estimated nighttime population is used to model the population for four temporal scenarios in a year based on different factors and weights. The resulting data are employed to estimate population loss for each of the temporal and earthquake scenarios. This study used building-specific human vulnerability curves developed by the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) to obtain possible loss of life estimates. The results reveal that there is a high positive correlation between the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the potential number of casualties.
关键词：KeywordsEnBangladeshCAPRADistribution modelingEarthquake loss estimationSpatiotemporal population distributionTemporal scenarios
