标题：Programas de incentivos fiscais são eficazes? Evidência a partir da avaliação do impacto do programa nota fiscal paulista sobre a arrecadação de ICMS
摘要：The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of Programa Nota Fiscal Paulista on tax revenue collection by the state of São Paulo. We observe a positive and significant effect on tertiary tax collection between 5% and 10% when São Paulo is compared to the other states in Brazil. We do not find a robust effect of the Program neither on total tax collection nor in the other sectors, as well as, evidence of a non-linear effect in time. When the analysis is restricted to the state of São Paulo, the estimates indicate that the Program did not increase real revenue collected by the tertiary sector compared to the other sectors. However, when the increase in tax collection is compared to the estimated raffle prizes the tax collection increases 2% of the average tax collected by the tertiary sector. We then conclude that the impact of the Program is very limited. It is necessary to remember that it was conducted an aggregated analysis. It is possible that more disaggregated studies can allow a better identification of the Program impact on specific sectors, but unfortunately this kind of data is not available.
其他摘要：The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of Programa Nota Fiscal Paulista on tax revenue collection by the state of São Paulo. We observe a positive and significant effect on tertiary tax collection between 5% and 10% when São Paulo is compared to the other states in Brazil. We do not find a robust effect of the Program neither on total tax collection nor in the other sectors, as well as, evidence of a non-linear effect in time. When the analysis is restricted to the state of São Paulo, the estimates indicate that the Program did not increase real revenue collected by the tertiary sector compared to the other sectors. However, when the increase in tax collection is compared to the estimated raffle prizes the tax collection increases 2% of the average tax collected by the tertiary sector. We then conclude that the impact of the Program is very limited. It is necessary to remember that it was conducted an aggregated analysis. It is possible that more disaggregated studies can allow a better identification of the Program impact on specific sectors, but unfortunately this kind of data is not available.
关键词：evasão fiscal; programas de bônus; arrecadação; ICMS.
