摘要：In this research, we analyzed the short and long term interdependence and relationship between the stock indices of the major emerging capital markets and the major developed markets for the period 1995-2005. The aim was to verify the existence and the dynamics of the “contagion” between the markets, or if the occurrence of crises and changes in the behavior of a market would have impacts on the behavior of the others. In the development of the work, we applied the methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model (VEC). We found the presence of cointegrating relationships between the markets analyzed, but was able to see that, despite being cointegrated markets, investors could benefit from international diversification of portfolios. That’s because the speed of adjustment of the long-term ratio of cointegration between the markets was low for the period analyzed. Accordingly, investors would have the opportunity to reduce risk by diversifying their portfolios. Keywords: Cointegration; VEC; emerging markets; developed markets; international diversification.
其他摘要：In this research, we analyzed the short and long term interdependence and relationship between the stock indices of the major emerging capital markets and the major developed markets for the period 1995-2005. The aim was to verify the existence and the dynamics of the “contagion” between the markets, or if the occurrence of crises and changes in the behavior of a market would have impacts on the behavior of the others. In the development of the work, we applied the methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model (VEC). We found the presence of cointegrating relationships between the markets analyzed, but was able to see that, despite being cointegrated markets, investors could benefit from international diversification of portfolios. That’s because the speed of adjustment of the long-term ratio of cointegration between the markets was low for the period analyzed. Accordingly, investors would have the opportunity to reduce risk by diversifying their portfolios. Keywords: Cointegration; VEC; emerging markets; developed markets; international diversification.
关键词：Cointegration;VEC;emerging markets;developed markets;international diversification;Cointegracão;VEC;mercados emergentes, mercados desenvolvidos, diversificação internacional
其他关键词：Finance; Business;Cointegration; VEC; emerging markets; developed markets; international diversification;G11; C32; E32; G15
