摘要：This study, conducted on the city of Hyéres-les-Palmiers (French Riviera) to guide the future land use planning, aimed to evaluate how sea level rise could modify coastal flooding hazards in urban areas located near small estuaries in a microtidal context. A joint probability approach allowed establishing typical storm parameters for specific return periods (30, 50 and 100 years), integrating offshore conditions (sea level and significant wave height) and the river level. Storm scenarios have been established from these parameters and the chronology of the most impacting recent storm. Sea level rise has been integrated (20 cm for year 2030 and 60 cm for year 2100), and the coastal flooding has been simulated with a non-hydrostatic non-linear shallow-water model (SWASH). The calculations have been realized on high resolution DEM (1 to 5 m mesh size), integrating buildings and coastal protections. The approach has been validated by reproducing a recent flooding event. Obtained results show the importance of wave overtopping in current coastal flooding hazard in this area. Nevertheless, if Hyéres-les-Palmiers is currently little exposed to coastal flooding, these simulations highlight an increasing role of overflowing due to sea level rise, leading to significant flooding in 2100, even for quite frequent events.
