摘要：Computational modeling plays an increasingly important explanatory role in cases where we investigate systems or problems that exceed our native epistemic capacities. One clear case where technological enhancement is indispensable involves the study of complex systems.1 Even in contexts where the number of parameters and interactions that define a problem is small, simple systems sometimes exhibit non-linear features which computational models can illustrate and track. In recent decades, computational models have been proposed as a way to assist us in understanding emergent phenomena. OT is short for CBOT. The participants of BOT mode is simplified into 3 principal agents: project company-government-users. The risk graph of different agents in different stages is revised. By applying ABC classification and antinomy analysis, all kinds of risk of different agents in different stages and preventive measures were discussed in sequence of the occurrence period and the importance by taking the risk identification, analysis, evaluation and disposal as intrinsic logics. Project Finance has the characteristic of strong financing ability and has a very bright future in China. A Based on the analysis of franchise period influence factors, aiming at the expected VFM effect and profit of private entity, builds the computational model during franchise period, moreover, analyzes the evolution of the computational model when construction period has been shortened and development time point has been advanced. At last, demonstrates the model through calculation, and proves that is more scientific and effective.
关键词：services sold to the public sector of BOT projects;franchise period;VFM;financial indemnity
