摘要：After the shocks of Brexit and Trump in 2016, what should we expect for 2017? Many people fear that populism and nationalism will continue to spread, undermining international cooperation and economic exchange as well as political integration, particularly in the EU. Indeed, the upcoming elections in various European countries, including France, the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, all have the possibility to bring populists to power. While unlikely, it is certainly possible that Marine Le Pen could win France’s presidential election – a victory that would trigger a political earthquake and rock the very foundations of the EU. In the Netherlands, the Geert Wilders-fronted Party for Freedom may yet emerge as the strongest party in the Dutch parliament. Germany is probably less vulnerable to the populist infl uence due to its favourable economic situation, but Angela Merkel has lost a lot of political support, especially in her own party, due to her spontane- ous decision to let over a million refugees enter the country. The looming confl ict between Merkel and the conservative wing of the CDU and the Bavarian CSU may turn out to be a major weakness in her re-election campaign. That could help the social democrats, but the right-wing populist AfD may also benefi t. Surveys show that electoral support for the AfD is currently far from levels that would allow it to enter government. But that could change, and as we have seen, opinion polls can be misleading. Another political risk is that early elections might be called in Italy, where the Five Star Movement could seize power.
