摘要：Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) have a unique yearly life cycle, in which successive generationsbreed and move northward from the southern USA in spring to the northern US and southern Canada by late summer;they overwinter in extremely restricted areas in central Mexico and along the California coast. Mexican overwinteringpopulations have experienced significant mortality events recently, which have been hypothesized as increasing infrequency owing to climate change. Here, we test the hypothesis of climate-change causation of these mortality events,at least in part, finding significant local weather trends toward conditions lethal for monarch survival. We use ecologicalniche estimates and future climate projections to estimate future overwintering distributions; results anticipate dramaticreductions in suitability of present overwintering areas, and serious implications for local human economies.
关键词：Entomologia, Ecologia;Monarca, Cambio Climático, Modelos de Nicho, Michoacan,
