摘要：The goal many enterprises pursue is estimating the future revenue in order to develop market targets. This paper describes a new Gamma-Gamma Model to estimate revenue for a future time unit. A stochastic model has a large inaccuracy when used to forecast individual future purchases of a customer, however, the prediction error is small for the sum of all the customers’ future purchases which reflects enterprise’s future economic benefit. Compared to existing models for the same purpose, this method is relatively simple. Two and a half years of an enterprise’s sales data has been used to do the empirical analysis. The results indicated that the prediction accuracy for an enterprise's future economic benefit was higher than that of existing models. On the basis of prediction individual customer's future purchasing amount, this paper proposed a method to judge consumption abnormal decline customers. Consumption abnormal decline customers' determination laid foundation for enterprise to do effective management.
关键词：Gamma distribution; consumption abnormal decline; stochastic model
