摘要：AbstractPopulation in Estuary Cimandiri area and the Pelabuhanratu Town increase continuously, which will cause an occurrence of land use changes from open space to built-up area. Due to the need of built up area, while the existing land area is very limited, so the shortage land will occur in the future. In this context, spatial dynamic model based on a combination between system dynamics and Geographic Information System (GIS) has to be elaborated for land availability model in Cimandiri Estuary, West Java. Thus, the existing surface can be a sustainability landscape. Population growth projection has an exponential growth pattern. Built-up area variable has a sigmoid pattern, which means that the land in estuarine area will be occupied for built-up activities in the future. Land availability variable has a decay pattern, which means that the available land will be run out to be used up by human settlement. The relationship between population growth and land availability will be contradictory. The intervention effect 60% ratio land restriction of built-up area will delay the development of built-up area, and after those delays it will remain constant. The projection of populations growth is implemented through projection development of built-up area which adapted by the landscape to be a sustainability landscape.
