期刊名称：International Journal of Industrial Engineering Computations
印刷版ISSN：1923-2926
电子版ISSN：1923-2934
出版年度：2012
卷号：3
期号：3
页码：463-476
DOI：10.5267/j.ijiec.2011.12.001
语种：English
出版社：Growing Science Publishing Company
摘要：The complexity of large-scale projects has led to numerous risks in their life cycle. This paper presents a new risk evaluation approach in order to rank the high risks in large-scale projects and improve the performance of these projects. It is based on the fuzzy set theory that is an effective tool to handle uncertainty. It is also based on an extended VIKOR method that is one of the well-known multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. The proposed decision-making approach integrates knowledge and experience acquired from professional experts, since they perform the risk identification and also the subjective judgments of the performance rating for high risks in terms of conflicting criteria, including probability, impact, quickness of reaction toward risk, event measure quantity and event capability criteria. The most notable difference of the proposed VIKOR method with its traditional version is just the use of fuzzy decision-matrix data to calculate the ranking index without the need to ask the experts. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated with a real-case study in an Iranian power plant project, and the associated results are compared with two well-known decision-making methods under a fuzzy environment.
