摘要：Anthropogenic climate change can alter the wind- and sea-ice climate and thus the waveconditions in the Baltic Sea. Here, transient simulations with the 3rd generation wavemodel WAM under two IPCC AR4 emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two initial conditionsof the forcing atmospheric fields are analyzed for the period 1961–2100. Futurechanges in the wave climate comprise higher significant wave height for most regionsand simulations. Median waves show temporal and spatial consistent changes, whereasextreme waves (99th percentile and maximum) show much more variability in space andamong the simulations. These changes in the wave fields result from not only higher windspeeds but also from a shift to more westerly winds, which leads to different fetch and thusto different significant wave height and direction. The multi-decadal and the inter-simulationvariability illustrate the uncertainty in the estimation of the climate change signal.
