摘要：Climate change is likely to alter the runoff regime and its origin in the Nemunas Riverbasin. The changes in runoff volume, seasonality and flood regime might affect hydropowerproduction management, the potential of a forthcoming nuclear power plant and the stabilityof ecosystems. The water balance model WatBal was used to estimate the changes inthe Nemunas River basin hydrology during the periods 1981–2000 and 2081–2100. Themonthly air temperature and precipitation projections for the 21st century were estimatedusing the CMIP 5 model outputs. The two most diverse representative concentration pathways,RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were analysed in this study to evaluate the spectrum of probablechanges in the Nemunas River basin hydrology. The results revealed that the hydrologicalresponse to climate change in the Nemunas River basin would be most likely related tothe change in snow climate. The projected magnitude of runoff changes during winter andspring is comparable for both scenarios, but the most important distinction is the differencein the cold-season hydrological regime, and especially water supply during winter andspring. According to the climate change scenarios both rain-snow and only rain dominanthydrological regimes are probable in the Nemunas River basin at the end of the 21st century.
