期刊名称：Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection
印刷版ISSN：2327-4336
电子版ISSN：2327-4344
出版年度：2017
卷号：5
期号：7
页码：23-31
DOI：10.4236/gep.2017.57003
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Pub
摘要：Using the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) medical records from January 1st to December 31st of 2013 and the Meteorological observation data, the air pollution data in the same time periods, generalized additive models were used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between COPD hospitalizations and temperature with controlling the confounding effects of time trend, meteorological factors and air pollution index (AQI). Results showed: variable temperature in 24 h (BT), 3d lagged minimum temperature (Tm3) and 5d lagged diurnal maximum temperature and minimum temperature range (Tc5) have different effects on COPD hospitalizations. When BT is between -4.4°C and -0.7°C, the relative risk (RR) increases to 1.0207 (95% CI: 1.0074 - 1.0342）with every 1°C increase in BT; when Tm3 is between -3.6°C and 3.2°C, the relative risk (RR) increases to 1.0118 (95% CI: 1.0015 - 1.0222）with every 1°C increase in Tm3, and when Tm3 is greater than 20.5°C, the relative risk (RR) increases to 1.0069 (95% CI: 1.0005 - 1.0133) with every 1°C increase in Tm3; when Tc5 is between 0.9°C and 8.6°C, if the Tc5 increases 1°C, the relative risk (RR) increases to 1.0125 (95% CI: 1.0066 - 1.0185. There are different effects for weather in different seasons on COPD hospitalizations: in autumn and winter, it is mainly of little BT and heavy air pollution weather; in spring, the large Tc5 weather is a main feature, and in summer, it’s mainly of high temperature and low pressure weather. The results help to provide some guidance on COPD forecasting services.
