标题：Temporal Dynamics of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Its Influence to Summer Maize Yield from Kaifeng Region in He’nan Province
期刊名称：Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection
印刷版ISSN：2327-4336
电子版ISSN：2327-4344
出版年度：2017
卷号：5
期号：12
页码：80-89
DOI：10.4236/gep.2017.512006
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Pub
摘要：Many quantitative studies get more and more attention on drought occurrence and monitoring trends of drought change using different methods; however few studies involve correlation between drought and crop yield especially drought index. This study analyzed the climate change about annual mean SPEI-3, SPEI-6 and SPEI-12, of Kaifeng region in the period of 1961-2013. The SPEI-3 and SPEI-6 seasonal short timescales showed a decreasing tendency, especially rapidly a decline since 2004, and high-frequency alternate dry/wet periods occurred during 1961-2013. However, the annual timescale SPEI-12 showed almost no evidently rise/decline tendency but severity events of dry/wet episode aggravated in terms of duration and magnitude and remarkable low-frequency change. Correlation analysis results between maize yield from Kaifeng region and multi-month scale annual SPEI showed a high negative significant correlation with -0.689 (ρ < 0.001) in SPEI-3 and only a negative significant correlation (-0.663, ρ < 0.001) in June SPEI-3. Further analysis between maize yield and temperature, precipitation and light during June-September found that precipitation in June and August was the main limiting factor to maize yield and their correlation values were well below the correlation of SPEI-3 of June. Finally, the reconstruction equation found that there was a better change consistency between the maize yield reconstruction and actual production but more error in extremely high and low annual yield. This study provides a reliable analysis of climate change to corn yield and basic data support for services of grain production and food security in the future.
关键词：SPEIDry/Wet PeriodsMaize YieldCorrelation AnalysisKaifeng Region
