摘要：ObjectiveTo study the trend of cycle activity of measles epidemic from 1950 to 2014 and establish a model to predict the national incidence of measles in the future.MethodsUsing the national measles monitoring data from 1950 to 2014, we establish a information database. Then, we set up the wavelet analysis model based on Hilbert transform to study the cycle of measles incidence. Finally, we establish the ARIMA model of measles risk level to predict the incidence of measles by SPSS software.ResultsWavelet analysis shows that the outbreak cycle of the incidence of measles is getting longer in the time dimension. ARIMA model analysis shows that national incidence of measles will fluctuate and decline in the next 36 years, which is may related to the improvement of medical standards and people’s awareness of the measles prevention.ConclusionsThe national incidence of measles is declining. It is cyclical and its outbreak cycle is getting longer. Data shows that the incidence of measles will gradually decrease in the future, and gradually achieve the global goal of eliminating measles.
