摘要：To provide a basis for the planning and management of landscape patterns and the formulation of ecosystem service value maintenance strategies, this paper studied the change in landscape patterns and forecasted the ecosystem service value in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China. A landscape transformation matrix was used to analyse the landscape pattern of the region from 1990 to 2010; the landscapes and the value of ecosystem services in the area from 2010 to 2030 were simulated by the compartment model and scenario analysis method. The results showed the following: (1) Landscapes in the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions were mainly cultivated land, woodland and grassland. Woodland and cultivated land were the main landscapes in Beijing, while cultivated land was the main landscape in the Tianjin and Hebei province. In the 20 years, landscape changes mainly occurred from 1990 to 2000. (2) The distribution of natural and artificial or seminatural-semiartificial landscapes was relatively clear. The natural landscapes, such as woodland and grassland, were mainly distributed in the northwest area, while the artificial or seminatural-semiartificial landscapes, such as cultivated land and construction land, were mainly in the southeast of the region. (3) Landscapes typically changed to semiartificial and artificial landscapes; thus, the effect of disturbance on landscape transformation should not be ignored. (4) The ecosystem services value of the region would fall by 110.41 and 1012.44 million yuan per year with model I and model III, respectively, whereas the value would increase 811.68 million thousand yuan per year with model II. (5) The ecosystem service value in the future will have a slight growth in accordance with mode IV established by land planning, and it is expected to increase nearly 2 billion yuan in 2030 more than in 2010(in 2010 price level).
关键词：landscape transformation;ecosystem service value;scenario analysis;compartment model
