摘要：This paper analyses the impact of the FTAA creation and the deepening of Mercosul on trade flows, GDP and welfare in Brazil and its Mercosur partners based on a computable general equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The first simulation examines the economic effects of the FTAA formation between 1995 (initial equilibrium) and 2016 (year of consolidation of the bloc) supposing the establishment of a Free Trade Area in 2016. The second simulation analyses the effects of the establishment of Mercosul’s common external tariff (CET) in 2006. Brazil benefits from both scenarios with regards to welfare gains, with FTAA formation bringing benefits marginally higher than the deepening of Mercosul.
其他摘要：This paper analyses the impact of the FTAA creation and the deepeningof Mercosul on trade flows, GDP and welfare in Brazil and its Mercosur partnersbased on a computable general equilibrium model from the Global Trade AnalysisProject (GTAP). The first simulation examines the economic effects of the FTAAformation between 1995 (initial equilibrium) and 2016 (year of consolidation ofthe bloc) supposing the establishment of a Free Trade Area in 2016. The secondsimulation analyses the effects of the establishment of Mercosul’s common externaltariff (CET) in 2006. Brazil benefits from both scenarios with regards to welfare gains, with FTAA formation bringing benefits marginally higher than the deepeningof Mercosul.
关键词：General Equilibrium Models;Regional Integration;FTAA;Mercosul;Modelos de Equilíbrio Geral;Integração Regional;ALCA;Mercosul
