标题：QUAL A TAXA POTENCIAL DE CRESCIMENTO DA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA? UMA ANÁLISE COM BASE NA CALIBRAGEM DE DOIS MODELOS TRADICIONAIS DE CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO
摘要：The paper presents some plausible estimates on the potential growth rate of the Brazilian economy based on two traditional models: the Harrod-Domar model and the neoclassical model with human capital and exogenous technical progress. The estimates are obtained through adjusting the parameters of the models based on the observed values of those parameters. The comparison of the two models suggests significant uncertainty about the value of the potential growth rate. The exercise with the Harrod-Domar model suggests a 2.5% rate, whilst the neoclassical model points to 4.6%. The Brazilian experience over the 1980s and 1990s seems to be much closer to the forecast provided by the Harrod-Domar model than to the one provided by the neoclassical model.
其他摘要：The paper presents some plausible estimates on the potential growth rate of the Brazilian economy based on two traditional models: the Harrod-Domar model and the neoclassical model with human capital and exogenous technical progress. The estimates are obtained through adjusting the parameters of the models based on the observed values of those parameters. The comparison of the two models suggests significant uncertainty about the value of the potential growth rate. The exercise with the Harrod-Domar model suggests a 2.5% rate, whilst the neoclassical model points to 4.6%. The Brazilian experience over the 1980s and 1990s seems to be much closer to the forecast provided by the Harrod-Domar model than to the one provided by the neoclassical model.
关键词：crescimento econômico;taxa de investimento;progresso tecnológico;economic growth;investment rate;technological progress
