期刊名称：International Journal of Urban Sustainable Development
印刷版ISSN：1946-3138
出版年度：2018
卷号：10
期号：2
页码：186-202
DOI：10.1080/19463138.2018.1461628
语种：English
出版社：Taylor & Francis Group
摘要：ABSTRACTSmall cities in developing countries are under a set of transitions that imperil their sustainability and whose repercussions can reach the international level. Therefore, local decision-makers need specific geoprospective urban models to seek alternative pathways. This paper presents a housing allocation model, designed to meet the context of small cities in developing countries. It is a multi-level Cellular Automata that relies on a new apprehension of urbanisation process, implemented through raster irregular grid with time-step variation. The model application to reconstruct housing dynamics in Kasba-Tadla city in Morocco, between 1999 and 2016, confirmed its ability to mimic well the spatio-temporal allocation of housing settlements. The obtained results showed that the spatial allocation of informal settlements is not anarchic, but driven by flexible rules, and also revealed Kasba-Tadla city could have better negotiated the after ‘Arab Spring’ urban transformations if local decision-makers had foreknowledge.
