摘要：AbstractIn this paper we investigate the bubble behaviour of Bucharest Stock Exchange, using log periodic power laws models.Analysing the behaviour of the most speculative index from Bucharest Stock Exchange, BET-FI, we prove that LPPL models are a useful tool in recognizing the behaviour of a stock market bubble and they have predictive abilities for the critical point of a bubble.Iterative calibration of the model for BET-FI regime led to a reasonable estimate of the stock market crash in January 2008. Using the same methodology, the anti-bubble regime from 2008 is fitted and we find an accurate prediction of the local point of phase transition from 27/10/2008.
关键词：Log Periodic Power Law;Stock Market Bubble;Crash
