摘要：AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility of forward contract price during different phases and holding periods in dry bulk shipping market, which could be helpful for the hedging and portfolio on the shipping market. This paper applies the Stochastic Volatility model to analyze the volatility, and the parameters of the model are estimated via the software package of Bayesian inference using Gibbbs sampling. The empirical results based on the daily price of Panamax forward freight agreement from 3 Jan 2006 to 13 Aus 2010 suggest that there are different stabilities, volatility persistence and trading active degrees in different conditions.
