摘要：AbstractSubway provides convenient and quick service for passengers, yet it merely provides the accessibility of the direction instead of the accessibility of the destination. It usually costs some time for passengers to reach their ultimate destination after the subway. Some owners of private car use their cars as “illegal taxi” to make money by meeting the demand of passengers’ final distance between the subway station and the ultimate destination, which increases the over-speed risk or other transportation risk. The government made an endeavor by operating more and more shuttle bus service, which still needs to be improved because passengers who prefer “illegal taxi” still occupy a part of total. This paper presents the analysis of passengers’ choice between shuttle bus and illegal taxi. Through field reconnaissance, field interviews and attitude of the passengers’ survey, obtain the information of passengers’ understanding of the shuttle bus concept, “the last mile” travel demands, social economic attributive information and the surrounding facilities’ traffic situation, the passengers’ normal travel information, and “illegal taxi” comparing with shuttle bus. Pick ten factors to specify the model of passengers’ choice. Use binary Logistic model to estimate and predict the choice of passengers between shuttle bus and illegal taxi after comparing efficiency with the multi-logistic model. By building this model we are looking forward to making more accurate prediction of passenger behavior, leading better condition of shuttle bus and efficient trip.
关键词：shuttle bus;illegal taxi;passengers’ choice;binary Logistic;multi-logistic model
