摘要：AbstractThis paper presents the problems and prospects of identification and assessment for achieving the final Lithuania's success of the integration into European Monetary Union since 1st of January, 2015. So the main aim of this paper is to assess the possibilities of Lithuania fully integrate by predicting the inflation rate changes since 2014 in 6 month period. Methods of scientific literature analysis, information grouping, comparison, and generalization and detail techniques were used. One of the most effective measure, that helped Slovenia to control the inflation and finally adopt the euro, was the macro-economic model SLOPOL6. It is a tool for forecasting macroeconomic developments over the short and medium run and for evaluating alternative policies aiming at influencing the business cycle, at stabilizing inflation. According to an econometric model, the most important variables that can affect the inflation rate is the average monthly gross salary, level of production capacity and national currency exchange rate, expressed in the largest export partner country‘s currency. The research results show that there is high probability that convergence criteria for inflation will be fulfilled, but there is a risk that inflation may be uncontrolled. Assuming that in period of January and June, 2014 the average gross wage and labour levels of production capability will grow at the same pace as in period of January and June, 2013 since January- April, 2014 the inflation level would increase to 1.8 percent. To high growth of inflation is possible in this case, if during 3 months the average gross wage and level of production capabilities increase by 3 percent each, respectively, the average gross wage from 2305.3 LTL up to 2386 LTL, the level of production capabilities from 73,5 up to 76.-7 percent. In this case, Lithuania would not comply with the convergence criteria.
