摘要：AbstractMost vulnerability assessment is conducted by assessing geographical areas based on their vulnerability levels with the aim of using those results for applied public policies on disaster risk management (DRM). This assessment process has been criticised as an oversimplification and because it fails to integrate vulnerability with other DRM concepts. This paper discusses the limitations of current approaches to vulnerability assessment and identifies key directions for a future research agenda to support better assessment processes at the community scale. To date, vulnerability assessment has failed to recognise the dynamic and systemic character of community vulnerability and the importance of integrating concepts of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation within the assessment process. This means it is inadequate for the purpose of assessing future vulnerability using quantitative modelling. In consequence, public policy often relies solely on assessments of current vulnerability levels for decision-making. This paper argues the need for an assessment process using vulnerability modelling. Modelling is able to emphasise characteristics of community vulnerability, assess future vulnerability, and quantitatively evaluate adaptations for specific scenarios. It integrates vulnerability with the related concepts of resilience and adaptation. As a result, this type of assessment offers a better framework for supporting more proactive public policies to reduce community vulnerability to disaster.
关键词：vulnerability;dynamic system;adaptation;evaluation;community;resilience and scenario modelling.
