摘要：AbstractJapan began initial stage of motorization in 1960s. The motorization made life of human highly dependent on private cars. As a result, vehicle holding behavior in the household might have a change during this process. This study examines the variation of the household vehicles owning behavior in the Chukyo region in Japan. The vehicle type is classified into the light motor car and the ordinary motor one. Meanwhile, the impact of the ownership of trucks is not taken into consideration. The person trip survey data in 1971 and 2001 are used as the sample. A bivariate ordered probit model is proposed for analyzing the ownership of two types of private cars. Since the maximal likelihood estimation method was found to be low efficient, the Gibbs sampler algorithm is implemented in this study. The conclusions of this study are listed as follows. Firstly, age of the householder, numbers of workers and number of members (>= 25 years old) were significant factors with same effects both in 1971 and 2001. Secondly, gender of the householder, district, population density and density of railway stations changed their effects from 1971 to 2001. The households with female householder were unwilling to own the light motor car only in 1971.The residents living in Nagoya would not like to own the ordinary motor car in 2001. Population density and density of railway stations affected ownership of the light motor car only in 2001. Lastly, there was a substitution effect on ownership between the light motor car and the ordinary motor one only in 2001.
关键词：Vehicle Type;Vehicle Ownership;Light Motor Car;Bivariate Ordered Probit Model;Person Trip Survey Data
