摘要：AbstractWhether or not the number of short-distance trips by motorcycles can be reduced still remains as an ill-answered question, especially in motorcycle dependent cities. Introducing mass transit systems in such cities may reduce long-distance trips by motorcycles on one hand, but may create short access trips by motorcycles on the other. Therefore, this paper aims to clarify the possibility of reducing the use of motorcycles for access trips. Based on subjective expectation data collected in Hanoi in 2009, we found significant disparity in the modal shares of future access modes to/from different stations between motorcycle and non- motorcycle users, suggesting potential influences of state dependence and spatial differences on why people ride motorcycles. For the purpose of this study, we apply a multi-level modeling approach. Estimation results revealed the causal link between current main travel mode and future access mode choices. Current walkers and cyclists tend to choose walking and bicycle modes as future access modes, but they are less likely to choose motorcycles. If current bus users mostly walk from their homes to bus stops, they do not tend to ride motorcycles to access to/from urban railway stations in future. Additionally, people may dislike riding motorcycles from their homes to stations if they request the improvement of sidewalk and pedestrian facilities for better accessibility. Inversely, those selecting measures to improve parking facilities prefer motorcycles than other access modes. Moreover, it is empirically confirmed the significant influences of spatial variations and inter-household variations on choices of future access modes. The findings of this study suggest the importance of incorporating state dependence, spatial variations and inter-household variations in future studies of access mode choice behavior.
