摘要：AbstractAny type of economic or political crisis affects not only the country but also its neighbors and partners which have any kind of relation. From this point of view, it is obvious to claim that Turkey suffered economically from all types of crises and wars that Iraq had in near history. Countries need to analyze their foreign trade performance and develop export strategies as companies do for getting success in the competitive business environment. Forecasting techniques are useful tools for strategic planning. It is possible to benefit from a forecast of any future event or an estimation of any historical event in order to create strategies for countries. Building a bridge from past by the help of estimation may be useful for strategic planners to shape the future. An economic loss can be measured by many different parameters to find out the total sustained loss. In this study it is aimed to calculate the economic loss due to the crises of Iraq at the point of export, after the major changes in Turkish economy in 1980. Various forecasting models as Exponential Smoothing, Winters’ Additive and Winters’ Multiplicative, and SARIMA models were implemented. Then all models were compared to find the best and the fully estimation was proposed after selecting the best model. Estimation was performed from 1988 the break-down year of Iraq-Turkey relations when Turkish export was affected, till the embargo of Iraq was terminated by United Nations in 2003. Finally, estimated values were subtracted from the realized export data in order to find out the loss of Turkey during this period.
