摘要：The aim of the research is to analyse the effects on agricultural water demand in the Lower Pak Phanang River Basin area due to climate change. The climate data used in the analysis were rainfall, maximum, minimum, and average temperatures. The climate datasets were obtained from statistical downscaling of global circulation model under the CMIP5 project by means of bias correction with Optimizing Quantile Mapping implemented by the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute. To determine agriculture water demand, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) based on Hargreaves method was calculated for both baseline climate data (1987-2015) and forecasted climate data in 2038. For agriculture water demand in the Pak Phanang river basin, we considered paddy field, palm oil, rubber, grapefruit, orchard, vegetable, ruzy and biennial crop, based on land use data of the Land Development Department of Thailand in 2012. The results showed that forecasted agriculture water demand in 2038 with existing land use data in 2012 will be increased with the average of 18.9% or 61.78 MCM as compared to baseline climate condition. Both water demand and supply management measures would be suitably prepared before facing unexpected situation.
