摘要：Abstract
The U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program has identified climate change as a growing public health threat. We investigated the potential effects of changes in ambient daily maximum temperature on hyperthermia and cardiovascular emergency department (ED) visits using records for patients age 64 and younger from a private insurance database for the May–September period for 2005–2012. We found a strong positive relationship between daily maximum temperatures and ED visits for hyperthermia but not for cardiovascular conditions. Using the fitted relationship from 136 metropolitan areas, we calculated the number and rate of hyperthermia ED visits for climates representative of year 1995 (baseline period), as well as years 2050 and 2090 (future periods), for two climate change scenarios based on outcomes from five global climate models. Without considering potential adaptation or population growth and movement, we calculate that climate change alone will result in an additional 21,000–28,000 hyperthermia ED visits for May to September, with associated treatment costs between $6 million and $52 million (2015 U.S. dollars) by 2050; this increases to approximately 28,000–65,000 additional hyperthermia ED visits with treatment costs between $9 million and $118 million (2015 U.S. dollars) by 2090. The range in projected additional hyperthermia visits reflects the difference between alternative climate scenarios, and the additional range in valuation reflects different assumptions about per‐case valuation.
Key Points
Quantified relationship of daily maximum temperature and hyperthermia emergency department visits for subset of insured age less than or equal to 64
Unconstrained climate change increases the rate of hyperthermia ED visits fourfold from 2010 to 2090 in 136 modeled metropolitan areas
A Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario versus a RCP 8.5 avoids ~37,000 annual hyperthermia ED visits in 2090
关键词：climate changehyperthermiaemergency department visit
