期刊名称：Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection
印刷版ISSN：2327-4336
电子版ISSN：2327-4344
出版年度：2018
卷号：6
期号：7
页码：178-193
DOI：10.4236/gep.2018.67012
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Pub
摘要：The verification analysis is applied to medium-range forecast products of T639, ECMWF, Japan model, NCEP ensemble forecast and NMC multi-model integration in late October 2012. The results show that ECMWF model has obvious advantage over other models in terms of height field and precipitation forecast; the westerly-wind index, geostrophic U wind and 850 hPa temperature prediction products can reflect the adjustment of atmospheric circulation and the activity of cold air, which have a good reference for the medium-range temperature forecast in the eastern China; the prediction of ECMWF height field and wind field can well grasp the main weather processes within 192 h, but beyond 192 h the model forecast ability decreases significantly; different models have large deviations in the medium-range forecast of typhoon track and the intensity and range of typhoon precipitation.
