摘要：A simulation of the upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1) model is evaluated through a comparison with NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data. It is shown that this model has the ability to simulate the climate pattern of the UTT in all four seasons. The spatial correlation on the climatological distribution between the simulation and the observation is 0.92, 0.93, 0.90, and 0.93 for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The first leading mode of the UTT in the simulation agrees with that in the observation, except that the simulated second leading mode corresponds to the observed first leading mode in spring. The standard deviation distribution of the simulation is also roughly consistent with the observation, with a pattern coefficient of 0.82, 0.78, 0.82, and 0.82 in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The potential UTT change in the second half of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is examined. The prominent change is that the summer UTT will increase over Eurasia and decrease over the North Pacific compared with the present, indicating that the zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific will be strengthened within the context of future global warming. The intensity of the interannual variability of the UTT over the Asian-Pacific region is also generally increased. The zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific will tend to be enhanced in winter, concurrent with the intensified interannual variability.
关键词：model assessment; projection; upper-tropospheric temperature
