摘要：There are many ways of measuring mobile penetration rate. In Zambia, like many other countries, mobile penetration rate has been measured using the number of sim connections. This approach, as well as that which uses the number of phones to measure mobile penetration rate does not give an accurate view of the actual mobile penetration rate. Measurements that determine mobile penetration rate based on number of sim connections might give false information indicating that there is saturation in the mobile telecommunications sector when in fact not. Understanding how number of phones, number of sim connections and number of actual mobile subscribers relate becomes very important. In this study, we use Microsoft excel to analyze and determine actual mobile subscriber penetration rate in Zambia. Data used in this study is based on a survey done on 700 mobile customers in six districts, surveys with the three Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) present in Zambia and the Zambia ICT Agency (ZICTA). Extrapolations were made on the results of the survey, with strict correlation made to fluctuations in population growth as estimated by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) to estimate the approximate actual mobile subscriber penetration rate for the years 2010 up to the year 2030. The results show that multiple sim ownership by mobile subscribers has a large influence on the actual mobile subscriber penetration rate. As of the year 2015, on average, every mobile subscriber in Zambia owned about more than two sim connections. Using our Mobile Penetration Rate Projection (MPRP) method, the actual mobile subscriber penetration rate is projected to be at 58% at end of the year 2030.
关键词：Mobile Penetration Rate; Sim Connections; Actual Mobile Subscribers; Zambia
