摘要：This paper examines the current account sustainability of five countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The ASEAN was established in 1967 to speed up economic growth and to bring about cultural growth and progress, stability and regional peace among its member countries. Greater integration makes the issue of long-term current account sustainability of these countries critical to each other’s prosperity. The paper uses the intertemporal solvency framework of Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Husted (1992) and cointegration methodology to test for a relation between exports and imports of the current account. Furthermore, we estimate this long-run relationship using dynamic OLS. The results show that Malaysia and Thailand have sustainable current account positions. Among the other countries, Singapore has a statistically significant positive relation between exports and imports, but its weakness means that Singapore continues to have a vulnerable current account position. Indonesia and the Philippines have unsustainable current account deficits. Exchange rate adjustments and macroeconomic policy reforms may be necessary to reduce vulnerabilities in external positions for these countries.
关键词：Cointegration; Current account sustainability; ASEAN; Intertemporal solvency
