期刊名称：International Journal of Finance and Accounting
印刷版ISSN：2168-4812
电子版ISSN：2168-4820
出版年度：2018
卷号：7
期号：3
页码：67-75
DOI：10.5923/j.ijfa.20180703.02
语种：English
出版社：Scientific & Academic Publishing Co.
摘要：Understanding the relationship between government spending, tax revenue and financing sources is a fundamental prerequisite, which helps to comprehend the performance of country fiscal policies and avoid spending shock. This study aimed to estimate the co-integration relationship between spending, tax revenue, non-tax revenue, grants and public debts using Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) bound test and Impulse Response Function (IRF). The ARDL test use quarterly data from Q1 in 2000 to Q2 in 2017, the results revealed the existence of a long-run association between all fiscal variables included in the model, while the short-run revealed existence of a co-integration relationship between spending, tax revenue and non-tax. The error correlation term is -0.8733, which implies the system return at the speed of 87.33% toward equilibrium when spending shock occurs. The IRF results indicate, the impulse response of tax revenue to spending has slight both positive and negative effects which persist from a quarter (Q) 2 to quarter (Q) 6 and keep fluctuating at decreasing rate up to 12Q when it has very slight effects. Both methodologies provide fiscal adjustment mechanism and confirm tax revenue drive spending, which aligned with the tax-spend hypothesis. Emphasized more on internal resource mobilisation, stabilisation of fiscal policies, strengthening overall tax revenue systems as well as stimulating economic growth.
关键词：ARDL bound test; Impulse response function; Government spending; Public debt; Tax revenue; Grants
