标题：Estimating the Effects of Free Trade Agreements on Imports, Exports and Trade Volume Using “Threshold Auto Regressive Model” (A Case Study of Pakistan)
摘要：This study aims to investigate the impact of free trade agreements on trade volume of Pakistan with China and the SAARC countries including India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bhutan and Bangladesh. The study employs cross country data by utilizing the variables imports, exports and trade volume for the time period 1972-2017. All the above variables are in log form and integrated of order one and at first difference. For this purpose, the Threshold Autoregressive Model (TAR) has been applied to estimate the pre-post analysis of the trade volume. Furthermore, we have selected 2004 as a threshold time and by introducing dummy variables for before and after 2004. The study found that after trade agreements of Pakistan with SAARC countries, the trade volume has been increased due to increase in exports and imports. However, in case of China and India, Pakistan’s imports increases at a greater rate than the increase in exports.
