摘要：Malaria is one of the major public health problems in Zimbabwe. The research was aimed at deriving a predictive model for malaria epidemiology in the Masvingo province of Zimbabwe at a scale that is sensitive to local changes in risk factors. Eight risk factors were used in the model build up. Each risk factor was first spatially classified in a geographic information system (GIS) according to how it promotes malaria incidence. The factors were then weighted using a pair wise comparison matrix which is part of analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The final malaria prediction model was then prepared by combining all risk factors and their derived weights through the index overlay model in a GIS. Results showed that northern districts of Chivi, Masvingo and Gutu have the least risk of malaria epidemic while as the southern districts of Chiredzi and Mwenezi have the highest risk. In terms of area, places classified as low risk covered 18.86%, moderate risk 35.67% and high risk 45.45% of the total area of the province. Predictions made by the derived model compared favourably with observations from field trials, health clinics and other models being used in Zimbabwe but had finer spatial coverage than previous models.
关键词：AHP; GIS; index overlay model; Masvingo province; malaria
