摘要：Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes.Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete floodrisk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river systemprocesses to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it isgenerally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occurand impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extentchanges in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affectflood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysiswhich considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate,catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The applicationof this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows thatflood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible changescenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received muchattention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweighchanges in often investigated components, such as climate. Although thespecific results are conditional on the case study area and the selectedassumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potentialdrivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes toa better understanding of how the different risk components influence theoverall flood risk.
