摘要：On the basis of discussing the principle of proba- bility statistical analysis (PSA) method, which is com- monly used in calculating the dam safety risk ratio (DSRR) of adjusting flood limited water level (FLWL) of reservoir, but not comprehensive and objective enough. The Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method was proposed to calculate the DSRR. The fun- damental principle of MCMC method and the basic process of simulating the inflow of reservoir were an- alyzed. The China’s Shilianghe reservoir was selected as a case study. The results indicate that the MCMC method is more accurate than PSA method. As the number of simulated flood process of MCMC method increasing, the accuracy of the result increases. As for lower FLWL, compared with the DSRR of historical statistic data and the result of PSA method, the results of MCMC method are lower, which is helpful to bring the benefit into full play. As for higher FLWL, com- pared with the result of PSA method, the results of MCMC method are higher, which is helpful to suffi- ciently evaluate the dam safety risk and ensure the dam safety.
关键词：Adjustment of FLWL;DSRR;PSA method;MCMC method;Shilianghe reservoir
