摘要：Climate change impacts such as an increase in mean temperature, change in precipitation patterns and sea level rise are affecting regional road transportation network in Atlantic Canada. Those impacts cause direct and indirect economic consequences for the network and regional economy. In our study, we constructed a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) to trace these consequences over time. Basic principles of the designed CGEM are discussed and the model's architecture is presented. The model's elements are estimated, and the obtained CGEM is tested with exogenously imposed shocks. The dynamics of regional temperature, precipitation and sea level are analyzed on the basis of comprehensive time series analysis. This dynamics will later be imposed on the designed CGEM as external productivity shocks. Some preliminary cumulative economic consequences are evaluated in monetary terms to obtain benchmarks for the mitigation measures associated with future development of the regional road transportation network.
关键词：Climate Change;Regional Transportation Network;General Equilibrium Model;Time Series Analysis;Productivity Shocks
