摘要：Exceedance probability of a potential hydropower production was evaluated for 12 river basins located in Finland. The exceedance probability curves of the potential hydropower production were assessed from the probabilistic projections of annual runoff rate. The exceedance probability curves of the ARR are constructed within the Pearson type 3 distributions from simulated parameters, i.e. mean values, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness. In our case study, these parameters were simulated from the mean values of annual precipitation rate calculated from outputs of two climate models under three Representative Concentration Pathway's climate scenarios. The future changes in the potential hydropower production for the selected river basins were evaluated on the assumption that a potential hydropower production is linearly related to ARR in all range of exceedance probabilities.
