期刊名称：Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics
电子版ISSN：2006-9774
出版年度：2013
卷号：5
期号：9
页码：337-350
DOI：10.5897/JDAE12.145
语种：English
出版社：Academic Journals
摘要：This study estimates the impact of climate change on supply for the four most common crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis relates crop supply, measured as cropped area, to weather, climate and prices. Crop supply functions are estimated using an error correction model (ECM) built on panel data. Crop supply through 2100 is predicted by combining estimates from the panel data analysis with climate change predictions from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). Results indicate climate change impacts on crop supplies ranging from -20 to +133% compared to a scenario of no climate change.
关键词：Food crop supply;climate change;error correction model
