摘要：As urban population is forecast to exceed 60% of the worlds population by 2050, urban growth can be expected. However, research on spatial projections of urban growth at a global scale are limited. We constructed a framework to project global urban growth based on the SLEUTH urban growth model and a database with a resolution of 30 arc-seconds containing urban growth probabilities from 2020 to 2050. Using the historical distribution of the global population from LandScanTM as a proxy for urban land cover, the SLEUTH model was calibrated for the period from 2000 to 2013. This model simulates urban growth using two layers of 50 arc-minutes grids encompassing global urban regions. While varying growth rates are observed in each urban area, the global urban cover is forecast to reach 1.7106 km2 by 2050, which is approximately 1.4 times that of the year 2012. A global urban growth database is essential for future environmental planning and assessments, as well as numerical investigations of future urban climates.
