摘要：Despite the recent effort to develop underpinning climate prediction science for seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate predictions, there has been relatively little uptake and use of $2D climate forecasts by users for decision making in Europe [1]. On the other hand, there is a much longer tradition in applying seasonal climate forecast information for user applications in other parts of the World, notably in Africa, the USA and Australia [1,2]; “one notable exception” is the use of precipitation forecasts for hydropower generation management by Electricte de France (EDF Energy) [3,4]. In part, this is related to the relatively limited skill of S2D climate forecasts in Europe; in contrast predictability in decadal hindcasts (forecasts of the past) is greatest in the Tropics [5]. This illustrates the importance of understanding skill in user uptake of such products [6-8]. However, accuracy, lead time, and appropriate spatial and temporal scale of $2D climate forecast information may not be the main (or only) factors influencing user uptake; potential economic and environmental benefits may be of greater importance [9]. In addition, probabilistic (ensemble) prediction systems are more commonly used in medium-range applications, bringing additional challenges in communicating forecast information to end-users.
