摘要：Developing a low-carbon system has become an important constraint in land-use transport planning. Although many cities in Asian developing countries have not prioritised the development of low-carbon land-use transport systems yet, their rapid economic growth increases their responsibility for CO2 emissions from transport. In order to realise such systems, it will be necessary to introduce advanced technologies and drastic land-use transport measures actively in a leap-frog manner. Such a policy package can be compre- hensively designed with strategies to avoid unnecessary travel demand, shift travel to lower-carbon modes and improve the intensity of transport-related emissions, as part of the thus-named ASI (Avoid, Shift, Improve) framework. This paper proposes a backcasting method to design measures macroscopically within the ASI framework for the realisation of a low-carbon land-use transport system in the long-term future of Asia’s developing cities. This method sets a future vision of a land-use transport system with instrumental measures suitable for Asian developing cities, such as transit development (shift), land-use development control (avoid), and vehicle technology advancement (improve). Then, it applies a macroscopic urban model for the approximate estimation of long-term changes in transport demand and for capturing the necessary level and timing of measures to achieve the challenging CO2 mitigation target by 2050 in megacities. This paper also discusses opportunities for advancing macroscopic urban models further for a more comprehensive design of measures for Asian developing cities by clarifying the existing limitations of the model.
