摘要：In this paper the authors analyze the long-term energy supply and demand perspective for Asia and the world up to 2050, taking into account recent policy changes after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. In the Reference Scenario, which yields the normative future evolution of energy demand and supply, the world primary energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2050 will represent 1.9-fold and 1.7-fold increases, respectively, from 2009 values, indicating that this is not a sustainable scenario from the viewpoint of either the environment or energy security. In the Advanced Technology Scenario (ATS), which assumes that accelerated RD&D encourages global deployment of advanced technologies, CO2 emissions in 2050 decrease by 33% from the current level. Even in the Low Nuclear Scenario (LNS), where nuclear power generation development is assumed to stagnate due to policy changes after the Fukushima accident, Asia’s and the global nuclear capacity will continue to increase, but this scenario leads to much larger CO2 emissions and higher power generating costs than the ATS. The total cumulative investment up to 2050 for the ATS is larger by $13 trillion than that for the Reference Scenario, but the benefit from reduced fossil fuel consumption is much larger than the cost increase, which demonstrates the economic viability of the ATS, although there remain considerable challenges to overcome. Not even the ATS can achieve the target of “halving CO2 emission by 2050,” thus long-sustained efforts to accelerate RD&D of more innovative technologies will be needed.
