摘要：We analyzed the long-term trends (from the 1950s to 2035) of Japanese “satoyama capital stocks” and ecosystem services in the Mt. Hakusan Biosphere Reserve, Japan. We estimated the spatial distribution of the human population in Hakusan City and chose grid squares where the human population was endangered. Many areas in satoyama regions in Japan will eventually become uninhabited. We made a list of natural and social capital stocks and ecosystem services in the area. We obtained the geographical distribution of satoyama areas that are in danger of disappearing. We also assessed the magnitude of threat and factors threatening the natural and social capital stocks and ecosystem services derived from the satoyama in this region. As a result, we predicted that the satoyama in the Mt. Hakusan Biosphere Reserve would be endan- gered because people with experience in “dezukuri” are nearly no longer existent. “Dezukuri” is defined as a traditional culture in which people stay in places distinct from their base settlements seasonally or temporally to cultivate farms. On the other hand, the number of people living in two places is increasing because many live in a rural city but visit the houses that their parents lived in to maintain them. They usually stay in or visit their second house on weekends. Such a new type of living in two places can prevent the extinction of satoyama capital stocks.
