摘要：Global warming and climate change and its impact on crop water requirement are a major concern ofthis century. It has been established that the regional and global temperature is rising due to increasedconcentration of green house gases in the atmosphere. Rising temperature is expected to affect thecrop water requirement. This study was undertaken to evaluate the trend and predict the changes inclimate parameters, and assess the impact of climate change on crop water requirement using localweather data. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used for forecastingthe future climate trend. Assessment of impact of climate change on crop water requirement wasdone for different climate change scenarios. Scenarios considered for assessment were based onARIMA, Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) and Inter-Governmental Panel forClimate Change (IPCC) predictions. Crop water requirement of various crops would decrease by 7.5to 14.2 mm by 2030s if it is determined using all important climatic parameters. Increase in waterrequirement varied from 13 to 77.5 mm for rice and 7.2 to 43.5 mm for pearl millet depending on thescenarios. Results indicate that crop water requirement did not increase if it was estimated using allimportant climatic parameters even though the average temperature increased during this period.However, if only rise in temperature is considered, crop water requirement would increase under allscenarios considered in this study.
关键词：Climate change;
Trend analysis;
ARIMA;
Evapotranspiration;
Crop water requirement
