摘要：Urbanization is regarded to be one of the most important factors driving land use change. In this paper,through an integrated technique of RS, GIS and GPS, unexploited land conversion has been unveiled from1996-2010 in Guiyang and further examination has been made on the impact of urbanization on unexploitedland change. And based on the adjustment of Markov process, land use transition probability and CLUE-Sparameters, many scenarios of unexploited land changes in the study area have been simulated. It is foundthat: (1) the unexploited land in Guiyang has experienced complex changes due to the rapid social andeconomic change since 1996. It showed a declining trend generally and was reduced from 74.33 km 2 in1996 to 65.72 km 2 in 2010, a reduction of 8.61km 2 in 14 years. It has a close relationship with the rapiddevelopment of urbanization. (2) The urbanization comprehensive parameter (k) showed growth from 2.91%to 4.78% after urbanization development indicators were standardized during 1996-2010. (3) Regressionanalysis was used to unveil the relationship between urbanization and unexploited land. There was a significantcorrelation between them, which proved that the urbanization is one of the dominant factors to lead toexploited land change. (4) The unexploited land will show a significant decreasing trend in the coming 20years, the conversion-out area will be larger than the conversion-in area in three scenarios and the gap willbe widened gradually year by year. During multi-scenario simulations, unexploited land area decrease inecological protection scenario is most prominent, the proportion of unexploited land converted to constructionland in economic development scenario is the largest, and the area of grass land becoming unexploited landin unchanging trend scenario is the largest.
